The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
It is a sharp depreciation in rupee valuation against the US dollar that has led to this steeper fall in the Dollex.
The sharp fall in rupee since the beginning of May will make things difficult for the central bank which is on the path of easing the monetary policy to revive growth.
Maruti Suzuki India on Thursday said it is considering an increase in prices of its products from January next year to offset the impact of rupee depreciation.
India's forex reserve jumped by $4.76 billion to $640.48 billion in the week ended February 21, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $2.54 billion to $635.72 billion.
The Chinese currency too is expected to continue its fall.
With the rupee crossing Rs 72/dollar in recent times, things suddenly don't look too good on several counts.
India Inc expects hike in FCNR (B) rates among on Sunday's measures to arrest rupee fall.
The RBI governor is focused on growth, and keeping rupee slightly depreciated is part of that 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' strategy.
The large current account deficit and the growing vulnerability on the external front have largely contributed towards the secular decline and the current volatility of the rupee.
Embedded redemption premium and 36 per cent depreciation in five years will realise forex losses worth Rs 67.2 billion.
Snapping the three-week rising streak, India's forex reserves dropped by $2.54 billion to $635.72 billion in the week ended February 14, the RBI said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had increased by $7.65 billion to $638.26 billion.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continues unabated, as they withdrew Rs 64,156 crore ($7.44 billion) this month so far on depreciation of the rupee, rise in the US bond yields and expectation of a tepid earning season. This came after an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
Rating agency Crisil said corporates, especially those in the auto, aviation, consumer durables and oil sectors, will be "severely impacted" by rupee depreciation due to large overseas debt and limited hedging.
As the rupee depreciated to a new 32-month low against the US dollar, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Wednesday said the Reserve Bank is monitoring the situation and will intervene in the forex market "as and when necessary".
South Korean consumer goods major LG Electronics on Monday said it would increase prices of its home appliances by 3 to 5 per cent due to the fall in rupee.
The rupee on Tuesday recovered from its all-time intra day low of 77.79 to close higher by 7 paise on a stellar rally in domestic stock markets. After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. However, a strong rally in domestic equities helped the rupee rebound and close at 77.48 (provisional), showing net gains of 7 paise over the last close of 77.55. The forex market was closed on Monday on account of Buddha Purnima.
German luxury car maker Mercedes-Benz on Thursday said it will hike prices of its entire model range in India by up to 4.5 per cent from September 1 to partly offset impact of rupee depreciation and higher import duties.
The rupee had closed at 64.83 last Friday.
'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
Domestic jet fuel prices are up 7%, but are still 14% lower on a y-o-y basis. While lower fuel prices have brought respite to airlines, their non-fuel costs are rising because of rupee depreciation
The rupee depreciated 6 paise to 77.50 against the US dollar in the opening trade on Wednesday as a surging American currency in the overseas markets and persistent foreign fund outflows weighed on investor sentiment. Besides, rising global crude prices impacted the domestic unit, forex traders said. However, a higher opening in the domestic equity market restricted the rupee's fall, they added.
The rupee is expected to remain volatile in the new financial year.
'Expect FPIs to continue selling for several months until the rupee stabilises.'
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The rupee had slumped to a record low of 59.9850 rupee to the dollar on Thursday, as the country's record high current account deficit is exacerbating its vulnerability in an emerging market rout.
India's forex reserves jumped by $7.65 billion to $638.26 billion in the week ended February 7, the RBI said on Friday. This is the third consecutive week of a jump in the kitty, which had increased by $1.05 billion to $630.61 billion for the week ended January 31.
One of the key factors contributing to the decline in the value of the rupee against the US dollar is the tightening yield spread between the 10-year India government bond and the US government bond. The yield on 10-year Indian government bonds is now only 295 basis points higher than that of US 10-year treasury bonds, the lowest since January 2007. Lower spread means lower incentive for foreign investors to invest in rupee assets, which adversely affects foreign capital inflows into the country and weighs on the rupee-dollar exchange rate.
India's forex reserves increased $5.57 billion to $629.56 billion in the week ended January 24, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall kitty had dropped $1.89 billion to $623.98 billion.
India's forex reserves rose $1.05 billion to $630.61 billion for the week ended January 31, the RBI said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had increased by $5.57 billion to $629.56 billion.
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Consultants say those selling imported consumer durables, apparel, food products, furniture, etc, are the ones hit the hardest.
The ongoing headwinds like war-triggered inflation, rate tightening by RBI and weak rupee will lead to a Rs 60,000 crore increase in 'risky debt' in FY23, a ratings agency warned on Monday. Defining 'risky debt' as borrowings by companies having a net leverage or debt to operating profit ratio of more than five times, India Ratings said the ongoing troubles will take the stock of such loans to Rs 6.9 lakh crore by end of FY23, as against the Rs 6.3 lakh crore it would have been but for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. An analysis of 1,385 corporate entities led the domestic ratings agency to trim revenue growth projection for entities in a post-war scenario and also forecast narrowing of the profit margins due to higher commodity prices, an increase in interest rates of up to 1 per cent and the rupee depreciating by a tenth.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said in the wake of appreciating US dollar, the movement of rupee has remained least disruptive as compared to its peers, and the size of foreign exchange reserve is comfortable. On a financial year basis (from April to October 2022), the rupee has appreciated by 3.2 per cent in real terms, even as several major currencies have depreciated, he said while announcing the latest set of bi-monthly monetary policy. "The story of the rupee has been one of India's resilience and stability," the Governor said while pointing out that the appreciation of the US dollar this year, which precipitated large-scale depreciation of all major global currencies including the Indian rupee, has drawn wide attention.
Profits of India's top listed companies have been growing at a faster pace than those of their American peers, but when it comes to revenue growth, the order has reversed recently. The combined net profit of the S&P 500 companies was up 14.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during the trailing 12 months (TTM) ended December 2023, as against 17.4 per cent profit growth logged by the BSE 500 companies in the same period. This is the second consecutive year of faster profit growth for the BSE 500 companies.
India's forex reserves dropped by $1.88 billion to $623.98 billion in the week ended January 17, the RBI said on Friday. Earlier, the overall kitty declined by $8.71 billion to $625.87 billion in the week ended January 10, the Reserve Bank of India said.
With rupee falling to new lows, losses on diesel and cooking fuel have widened to their highest levels this year, upsetting the government's subsidy maths.
India's forex reserves dropped by $8.71 billion to $625.87 billion in the week ended January 10, the RBI said on Friday. Earlier, the overall kitty dropped by $5.693 billion to $634.58 billion in the week ended January 3, the Reserve Bank of India said.
Analysts are of the opinion that given the change in the business model, which is resulting in smaller deals spreading across the whole year, clients may be already renegotiating prices.
Foreign investors continue to pull back money from the Indian equity market withdrawing a little over Rs 30,000 crore in the first fortnight of the month amid escalation in global trade tensions. This came following an outflow of Rs 34,574 crore from equities in February and Rs 78,027 crore in January.
A weaker rupee could aid corporate earnings through its positive impact on export intensive sectors such as information technology services, pharmaceuticals and commodity producers such as metal and mining, and oil and gas companies.
India's forex reserves dropped by $4.11 billion to $640.28 billion during the week ended December 27, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall kitty had dropped by $8.48 billion to $644.39 billion.
